More analysis of latest international student enrolment data

The 2012 Export Education Levy data contained mixed news across sectors, and from some of our key international markets. While the number of international student enrolments is down overall, importantly the value of the industry, as measured by international fees earned, has increased by 2 percent and this is a significant result.

Education New Zealand is committed to working with each sector of New Zealand’s international education industry to support institution’s needs and priorities to enable industry-led growth. We have a strong programme of work underway in 2013 to achieve this.

Schools

For all schools, international student numbers declined 0.3% to 15,643 students in 2012 compared with 2011

• Primary and intermediate enrolments were down 3.3%

• Secondary, composite and special enrolments fell 0.3%.

• But value has remained more or less static over the past five years

• South Korea and China make up half the international education market for this sector

South Korea was down 15% for schools in 2012. Why?

• South Korean Government moves to provide more English language tuition in Korea

• Foreign providers setting up in Korea

• Christchurch earthquake

• Economic factors in markets

• High NZ dollar.

China shows strong growth

• In 2012 there was a 20% increase in Chinese school international student numbers

• Chinese first-time visa applications are up, particularly for contributing, composite and special schools.

Japan is emerging as a growth market

• Japanese school international student numbers rose 23% in 2012

• ENZ regards Japan as a market worth further exploration, particularly for school partnerships.

Universities

Universities earned $308.9 million in international fees in 2012, an increase of 5.5%

• There are fewer international students, but they are higher value.

International university student numbers fell 5.2% - a decline of 980 students

• Indian international students accounted for more than 40 percent of the decline.

• There was a small increase in numbers of Chinese international students (universities’ biggest and most valuable market). This suggests that New Zealand’s most important international education market is performing well

• Japanese international student numbers almost doubled

• Saudi numbers are falling due to a halt in new intakes for Saudi scholarship students in 2012

• Universities have seen overall international student numbers fall since 2004 despite ongoing growth in the global market for international students

• Capacity exists and there is scope for recovering market share in the university sector.

Figures for individual universities are not yet available but we believe about a quarter of this decline can be attributed to a fall in enrolments at Canterbury and Lincoln Universities due to earthquakes

Universities have strong commitment to internationalisation, partnering with institutions in a variety of markets.

Institutes of Technology and Polytechnics (ITPs)

In 2012 ITP fee income was up 4.9% from 2011 - overall revenue for the sector has increased almost 50% since 2007

International student numbers rose 7.1%; EFTS were up a corresponding 3.4%. ITPs was the only sector to see a rise in numbers and EFTS  

India and China make a combined 57.6% of all ITP international enrolments:

• Numbers are up or holding for all major markets

• There were small declines in South Korea and Saudi Arabia

• Saudi numbers are falling due to a halt in new intakes for Saudi scholarship students in 2012

• China remains relatively strong

• ITPs are encountering strong competition in India from traditional competitors Canada and Australia

• ITPs want to diversify their exposure to India and China with new market development in the Middle East, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Private Training Establishments (PTEs)

PTEs (non-SDR)

Enrolments at non-SDR PTEs (mostly English language schools) fell 13% in 2012

• English language schools down 17%.

• Tuition fees were down 9 % to $105.1 million

• The decline in English language schools likely to be linked to the rising value of the NZ dollar. International language travelers are known to be price sensitive; also an area of intense international competition.

This fall, which has been happening for two years, is of concern because ESOL students often move on to further academic study

Why down:

• Affordability – the high NZ dollar

• Greater provision of English language tuition in South Korea

• Saudi Arabia – fewer new Saudi scholarships

• New immigration policy – changes to work rights for L5 and 6 diplomas introduced in April 2012

• Competition from other our key global competitors.

PTEs (SDR)

• Enrolments at SDR PTEs (mainly vocational education training institutions) were down 6% in 2012

• Tuition fees were up 6.4% to $99 million

• Internationally, demand is growing for high quality vocational training

• Some of our competitors (eg. Australia) have tightened up student immigration criteria for vocational training.